Geopolitical events can move markets quickly, and the conflict with Iran is no exception. Within a single week, oil prices rose roughly 50%, the U.S. dollar posted its strongest move in over a year and investors began asking whether the macro backdrop that has shaped portfolio positioning coming into 2026 had fundamentally changed.
In this flash edpisode of The Wealth Enterprise Briefing, Managing Partner Michael Zeuner is joined by Global Head of Macro Sam Sudame to take stock of what has happened in the first week of the conflict, what the data is actually showing and whether the firm’s three core portfolio themes remain intact.
They discuss:
- Why the Straits of Hormuz make this conflict a substantial risk to global energy supply and inflation
- What the difference is between an inflationary growth environment and a stagflationary shock, and which one markets are currently pricing in
- What the oil futures term structure is signaling about how long the market expects the disruption to last
- Why the case for staying short to intermediate on duration in fixed income remains intact
- How diversified equity portfolios, including exposure beyond mega-cap technology, held up better than expected last week
- Why real assets, including natural resources, infrastructure and real estate, remain a core part of the portfolio thesis in this environment
For investors who have been following the firm’s macro framework heading into 2026, this episode is a timely check-in on where things stand and what to keep watching as the situation develops.
As the situation continues to develop, we remain focused on monitoring the data closely and will provide updates as warranted. If you’d like to discuss any possible implications for your portfolio, please be in touch.
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